The polling places of the United States have been closed for less than 24 hours. The votes in the 2026 midterm elections have been cast and mostly counted, and for many the shock is still wearing off. At a national level, all signs had pointed to a negative outcome for the incumbent party, but few expected the depth and breadth of the Democratic Party’s success.
It was widely accepted that there would be Congressional losses for the party in power; that is typical for midterm elections. Most prognosticators believed that the Democrats would take control of the House of Representatives, and some thought a narrow Senate majority was probable. No one expected the “Blue Wave” to be more like a “Blue Tsunami.”
In the Senate, seven seats have changed from Republican to Democrat, and none have gone the other way. With two races still too close to call, Democrats are assured of having enough for a working majority of at least 54 – and possibly 56 – seats, including those in ruby-red Kansas and South Carolina. In the House, the Democrats look forward to having a minimum of at least 240 of the 435 voting members, enough for a comfortable working majority.
The causes will be debated for a long time, but at first glance it looks as if there were three main things at play. The Republicans did not successfully address economic hardship beyond promising free money if they won, they assumed that the national issues on which Donald Trump had built the party’s dominance would continue to draw support, and they seemed unaware of how many voters had connected Washington DC to difficulties they were experiencing in their own lives.
Most went to the ballot box thinking of high prices and stagnant wages, tying them to actions taken or not taken by the Trump administration and the monolithic majority in Congress. Soaring prices for gasoline, diesel fuel, food, and other essentials trace directly to the war against Iran and erratic, vacillating tariffs. Somehow Republican leaders thought this would not be as important to Joe Lunchbucket and Sally Housecoat as harsh treatment for undocumented immigrants, a high-testosterone military, and transgender restrictions. In terms of votes, the shape of Congress for the next two years has been decided.
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What is undetermined is what will happen now. The Constitution outlines the rules for the upcoming change of power. The new Congress will not be seated until January 3, 2027, a little less than two months from now. The current Congress has 60 days of a “lame duck” session before its reign concludes. A lot can be done in that time, and President Trump knows he will never again have a compliant Congress that will allow him to do whatever he wants without supervision. He may wish to do a lot, and some observers fear a policy of “scorched earth” that will leave the incoming Congress unable to do much except counteract the depredations thus rendered.
The Constitution also stipulates (Article I, Section 5) that “Each House shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns, and Qualifications of its own Members.” Theoretically, a majority in the lame duck Congress could decide that some of the new electees were not properly elected and refuse to swear them in? Such an action is not unprecedented. Could that be done en masse, keeping Congress in Republican hands?
Theoretically, yes. Realistically, it would be tough to implement. I would not put such an effort beyond a Republican Party in thrall to Donald Trump. However, I believe those days are no more.
For ten years, Republicans have seen what happens to those who cross Trump, and it is neither pretty nor avoidable. Over that period, the Republicans who started out gleefully supporting Trump because of his ability to arouse and rally voters have watched that relationship change into one of fear. The enmity of Trump could get just about any Republican officeholder demolished politically. Opposing him could mean career suicide.
In his second administration, Trump was able to maintain the same sort of control over House members and those Senators who would be up for reelection this year. From now on, they do not have to face his wrath at the polls. Until yesterday, Republican officeholders feared Trump; now none of them do. The bloc that will do his bidding without fail has fractured. I do not believe he will be able to compel all the Republicans in Congress to refuse to seat new members. The margins of majority are too thin to keep everyone in line. If four Republican members in each House ally with the Democrats to prevent such a Constitutional crisis, it would constitute a majority. That is not to say that Trump will not even consider trying such tactics, but if he does I believe they will not succeed.
Will the Republicans saddle Trump with responsibility for the results of yesterday’s elections? I suppose some will, depending on the situations in their home States and districts. Behind closed doors, there will also be a backlash against Trump’s enablers. We could see it yesterday in the number of Senators and House members who were defeated for reelection. A notable casualty was Maine’s longtime Senator Susan Collins, who in public made an art of anguished handwringing and protestations of her uncertainty on controversial Trump actions but in the end always voted with him if her vote was needed. After six campaigns in which she was always seen as vulnerable but was always able to pull it out, she was defeated by an opponent who tied economic woes in Maine to Trump’s tariffs and Trump’s Iran war, pointing out that Collins did his bidding whenever the chips were down.
The reign of Trump is going the way of a spring-wound clock. It is my hope that the next Congress will return stability and Constitutional government to our country. Will they? Can they? Only time will tell.
